Avascent Analytics Releases Latest 050 Update
New Dataset Includes Adjustments in Line with Fiscal Year 2013 Appropriations, Fiscal Year 2014 President’s Budget, and Key International Program Changes
Avascent Analytics is pleased to announce its latest update to the 050 dataset. The update published today (April 24) includes changes across a wide array of market segments, spanning the United States and global markets.
The updates to 050 today center on three main areas:
- U.S. Federal Services: Avascent has adjusted the Services market forecast in line with new contracts data and a revised forecast of agency budgets through fiscal year 2018;
- U.S. Defense Systems: Avascent has adjusted various programs and systems in line with the fiscal year 2013 appropriations and the fiscal year 2014 President’s Budget request;
- International Defense Systems: Avascent has made a variety of changes across multiple countries and markets. These are driven by individual changes on the basis of programmatic developments and contract awards. Avascent has also broadened its scope to cover defense investment in Peru.
Users of 050 with questions about the new data release are invited to contact Avascent Analytics at firstname.lastname@example.org. Additional detail is provided on these updates below.
U.S. Federal Services:
The April 24 data release makes adjustments to the Federal Services market data on the basis of two fundamental developments: 1) The availability of fully processed “actual” data for fiscal year 2012; and 2) Avascent’s revised forecast of agency budget availability through fiscal year 2018.
Avascent assimilates Federal Procurement Data Service contracts data into discrete market segments. Avascent painstakingly “cleans” the data to insure contracts are associated with the correct market segment and sub-segment, adjusting Product/Service Codes that government agencies may frequently mis-tag. Avascent also aligns contractors under common naming conventions, and controls for M&A activity. This ensures that Avascent’s depictions of FY14 “actual” figures are highly reliable.
Avascent has also revisited, and where appropriate, revised its market forecast at every level and customer group. With sequestration hitting in FY13, and a real risk in FY14 and beyond, growth in a number of market segments may be more measured. The new dataset reflects this increased conservatism.
Avascent will issue a set of briefing materials in May that provide detailed explanation and justification for its revised market forecasts at the segment and customer level.
U.S. Defense Systems:
The April 24 dataset accounts for both the FY13 appropriations and the much-delayed FY14 President’s Budget. This is the first of two planned data releases to account for the FY14 President’s Budget. (The second is planned for June 14.) The April 24 data release adjusts figures in FY13 to levels set in the FY13 Defense Appropriations Act signed into law on March 26. The FY2013 values do not include the sequester required by the Budget Control Act.
This initial FY14 update uses an unorthodox methodology to yield a very quick-turn estimate of how the FY14 President’s Budget will affect various programs and market sectors. Avascent Analytics has adjusted each Cost Element in the U.S. Systems data by a proportion equal to how its parent Program Element fared in the FY14 Future Years Defense Plan. Thus, if a given PE was reduced from the level planned under the FY13 FYDP, all of the Cost Elements that comprise that PE will be reduced at the same rate, year by year.
This method is limited in how precisely it can address the detailed fluctuations of various projects and contract actions, which can diverge from the overall trendline at a Program Element level. But it was important to push an FY14 dataset to the 050 user community as quickly as possible.
As noted above, Avascent is planning its next data release on June 14. This next release will use the normal process of updating each individual Cost Element in line with specific Defense Department (and Coast Guard and Customs and Border Protection) program plans. This painstaking activity requires significantly more time to execute and check for quality control.
Avascent continues to update individual programs in light of key developments. These include changes in funding plans, programmatic scope, schedule, and contractor roles.
The full array of program and market adjustments are too numerous to itemize here. But some highlights of changes to be found in the April 24 data release include:
- Brazil selected the Pansir S-1 and Gephard systems to satisfy its growing air defense requirement in anticipation of the Olympics and World Cup;
- The Qatari Navy may be developing plans to procure a new class of frigate;
- Chile has cancelled its fighter competition, potentially creating demand for upgrades to its existing F-16 fleet;
- Australia requested an FMS sale of F/A-18 and EA-18G aircraft and associated equipment.
In addition, with the April 24 data release, the international scope of the 050 product expands to 41 countries with the addition of Peru.
About Avascent Analytics
Avascent Analytics offers a suite of integrated market analysis products that deliver timely and accurate information for business development and strategic planning. Our toolkit provides visibility into customer demand and competitive positioning across a wide variety of markets in the United States and 41 other countries.
The Avascent Analytics product suite, often known as “050”, provides users in government and industry with detailed insights into current and future spending priorities, program plans, competitor position, and opportunity space across dozens of product and service sectors.
The Avascent Analytics toolkit was created for clients who need to make sense of an uncertain environment, and identify opportunities for growth. Avascent Analytics aims to equip clients with the tools they need to gain market insights with transparency and efficiency.
The name 050 evokes the National Defense function in the U.S. Congress’ appropriations process, and captures several qualities about Avascent’s team and product: A strong focus on the intersection of public policy and defense market dynamics, and a mastery of esoteric details that matter to our clients.