Avascent Analytics is pleased to announce its latest update to the Systems dataset. The update published October 15th includes changes across a wide array of market segments, spanning the United States and international markets.
The updates center on several main areas:
- Program Updates: The new dataset updates contractor information on various programs that have been awarded following competitive processes among customers in both the United States and other countries. The new dataset also includes updated information on new-start programs among some non-U.S. countries. A selection of these updates are itemized below;
- Expansion of Global Dataset to Five Additional Countries: We have expanded the dataset to include coverage of Afghanistan, Belgium, Philippines, Switzerland and Vietnam. These countries have been cited by Analytics users as areas of interest, given their existing or potential relevance to U.S. and western suppliers of defense technology;
- Improvements in Data Transparency and Traceability: The October 2013 dataset includes a variety of improvements aimed at providing users with greater transparency into the sources, methods and assumptions used to document various defense programs. These changes provide greater clarity on the sources used for some program estimates and in Avascent’s estimates for risk of program delay (“Award Date Confidence”).
Additional detail is provided on these updates below. Users of Avascent Analytics with questions about the new data release are invited to contact Avascent Analytics at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Details on the October 15th Avascent Analytics Data Release
Program Updates: The past several weeks have seen a number of significant contract awards announced in both the United States and among international countries. In addition, a number of customers have either initiated, modified, or added clarity to new program plans.
The full array of program and market adjustments are too numerous to itemize here. But some of the items users will find in the revised dataset are:
- The U.S. Army awarded a contract for the Mid-Tier Networking Vehicular Radio (MNVR) to Harris. The initial contract was for just over US$8M; in the long-term, this program could yield a potential US$140M;
- U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) selected General Dynamics for the Ground Mobility Vehicle (GMV) program, with a contract valued at US$562M. AM General and Navistar are protesting the award, but Avascent Analytics has tagged the GMV program to GD in the October dataset;
- SOCOM also awarded a roughly US$70M to Rockwell Collins, Boeing, and Sierra Nevada (SNC) for research and development of a Degraded Visual Environments System;
- The U.S. Air Force awarded US$1.9m production planning contracts to Boeing and Raytheon for the Family of Advanced Beyond-Line-of-Sight Terminals (FAB-T) program.
- The U.S. Navy awarded a US$386M contract to Raytheon for the Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR) program.
- Iraq announced an acquisition of a US$2.4 billion Integrated Air Defense System with relevant systems produced by Raytheon, Boeing, Northrop, Thales, and Lockheed Martin;
- The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notified Congress of a potential US$950 million sale of an E-767 AWACS Mission Computing Upgrade to Japan;
- The South African National Defence Force awarded a US$807 million production contract for the Badger infantry fighting vehicle to Denel;
- South Korea has reopened the competition for the FX-III fighter program and announced plans to restart its aerial tanker procurement program in 2017;
- Turkey has elected to purchase a Chinese system for its US$3 billion LORAMIDS air defense program, frustrating NATO allies.
Expansion of Global Dataset to Five Additional Countries: The October 2013 dataset includes coverage of five additional countries: Afghanistan, Belgium, Philippines, Switzerland and Vietnam. While these countries are large in the scale of overall defense investment spending (totaling US$4.3 billion in investment spending in 2013), they are of significant interest to our clients for a number of reasons.
For Belgium and Switzerland, client feedback indicated interest in ongoing or planned defense acquisitions, and the position of those countries in the core western-addressable defense market. For Afghanistan and the Philippines, clients expressed a strong interest in countries with a current or potential defense trade relationship with the United States. And in the case of Vietnam, there is notable promise of at least an eventual ability to draw on western sources for defense modernization.
Improvements in Data Transparency and Traceability: In response to client requests, Avascent has been making a series of improvements to increase transparency into the sources, methods, and assumptions used in the Systems data. Users will see several changes in the October 2013 data set related to this effort:
- Source Data: Data downloaded from the web interface in Excel will feature a new column, labeled “Additional Sources,” which contains information that indicates Avascent’s source material for projections of various programs and sub-systems. This will feature mainly as a series of links government statements or publications.
By creating a separate Source column, Avascent aims to give users a more explicit indication of data derivation. Please note that not all records will have the Source field filled out; we are gradually transitioning to this new structure, and will populate the Source column over time.
- Award Date Confidence: Many users have asked for more clarity in how to think about discounting programs based on varying levels of certainty. While Avascent Analytics does not discount its market forecast on this basis, we do provide a couple of qualitative indicators to show where programs are more solid than others; these include “Program PGO” and “Award Date Confidence.” The former addresses overall program certainty, and the latter indicates risk of delay, relative to where funding in shown in the 050 Systems dataset.
The change featured in the October 2013 data release affects Avascent’s rating system for Award Date Confidence. Avascent is moving to a rating system that addresses both the likelihood of program delay, and the extent of the delay (i.e., number of years).
Next Data Release Planned for Early January 2014
Avascent plans to issue its next iteration of the Systems dataset by early January 2014. The major elements of that update will include:
- 10-Year Forecast: Avascent has been preparing an extended forecast across all major markets, from a 5-year to a 10-year period. This forecast extension will be available with the first 2014 data release;
- Links to DoD Program Element Documents: In response to user requests, Avascent is embedding live links to pdf files for relevant DoD Procurement and RDT&E program justification materials. This will allow users to quickly review source documents for further background research;
- Revised International Budget Toplines and Strategic Assessments: Avascent will conduct a comprehensive refresh of its assumptions around country-by-country defense budgets, in light of political and economic developments. (This top-down refresh process also drives a comprehensive review of bottom-up detail.) Avascent will publish the results of this international topline budget analysis in January as a series of documents outlining its budget forecast and key assumptions.
- Program Updates: As with every data release, Avascent Analytics will keep pace with critical programmatic developments in the United States and around the world.
- Date of Record Creation: The January release will also add a column that indicates when a record first featured in the dataset. This column is intended to highlight new developments for 050 users. Avascent Analytics has long denoted when individual records were last changed. But this new column will allow users to easily identify and pull together entries that represent new programs.